EKMH Innovators Interview Series: 2020 Blockchain Predictions Week
An interview series spotlighting global tech influencers, disruptors, visionaries, and of course, innovators.
‘Tis the season for reflections and looking ahead to the new year. To celebrate the holidays, this week the Innovators Series focuses on the Blockchain, Crypto and Fintech predictions of mavericks and mavens in the sector.
Inventor of the multi-party settlement mechanism and author of the Knowledge value of Time algorithms, Vaibhav Kadikar has been in this space since 1999 when he launched his first digital (not crypto) currency. In 2007 he wrote the paper on Financial Decentralization that turned into an approved patent from the USPTO in 2011 for the multi-party settlement. More recently in 2017 Kadikar founded CloseCross to disrupt the financial derivatives market with an aim to open up the $1200 trillion p.a. market to the masses.
When the CloseCross CEO and Founder was asked about his predictions for the upcoming year, he focused on these global shifts:
*Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will gain traction as an idea and we may even see one launch, with China and Switzerland the most likely to take the lead in this regard. A world of competing national digital currencies will cause a seismic shift in the financial and cryptocurrency markets, and may stir up a new kind of currency war as the dollar will finally face real competition as the world’s dominant currency.
*Bitcoin will not yet take off as a payment method for everyday transactions. It will continue to be a long term store of value and a safe haven from the increasingly unstable political and economic landscape but I don’t foresee anyone buying their morning coffee with BTC in 2020.
*I believe that as the digital asset class market matures, Bitcoin prices will continue to stabilise - it’s a highly volatile asset that will become a distant memory. Price stabilisation will spur a renewed interest from institutional investors to enter the space.
*Defi is poised to be huge in jurisdictions undergoing significant political and/or economic reform like Hong Kong, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. Citizens hurting from rampant inflation, imbalanced tax breaks and illiquidity of the legacy financial structure will increasingly turn to alternative avenues of finance.
*As the industry matures, the nature of the fundraising space within blockchain will continue to evolve. We will see fewer and fewer ICOs, while STOs will launch in more public markets. Following in the footsteps of Facebook’s Calibra wallet, payment platforms and Big Tech will start developing their own crypto wallets. A wallet war will break out with companies fighting for the ultimate end-user relationship. This will occur in tandem with the introduction of mainstream financial products in the crypto ecosystem, such as ETFs and options futures.
*A tech war will emerge between the U.S and China. Both will race to become the epicenter of blockchain development.
*A recessionary scenario is likely to spur interest in Bitcoin but this will not be a guarantee of future adoption. A severe global or national recession could have negative reverberations for the entire crypto ecosystem, as ultimately, it could put off or exclude certain individuals from investing their wealth in the asset class. For the long-term, future success of Bitcoin it needs to be driven by positive fundamentals, as opposed to negative forces.
